Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 2.359711 2.501257 2.655738 2.838671 3.051907 3.295994 3.601811
2025-08-31 2.203839 2.376837 2.573477 2.817806 3.119907 3.491383 4.001474
2025-09-07 2.119932 2.314223 2.541572 2.834376 3.213583 3.708744 4.448217
2025-09-14 2.001166 2.197271 2.429991 2.735112 3.139818 3.685671 4.541194
2025-09-21 1.940425 2.143950 2.389203 2.717192 3.164209 3.790566 4.832918
2025-09-28 1.873730 2.078354 2.327314 2.664502 3.132279 3.804764 4.972356
2025-10-05 1.861201 2.077779 2.345529 2.716006 3.245968 4.043674 5.544771
2025-10-12 1.861812 2.092382 2.382245 2.792617 3.399886 4.363929 6.372303
2025-10-19 1.827616 2.060406 2.355391 2.777651 3.413050 4.449658 6.734179
2025-10-26 1.803436 2.039832 2.341895 2.779390 3.449727 4.576998 7.231470
2025-11-02 1.758387 1.990453 2.287582 2.719164 3.383391 4.508911 7.205476
2025-11-09 1.730931 1.962973 2.261467 2.697935 3.376752 4.547989 7.475379
2025-11-16 1.704127 1.936493 2.236958 2.679589 3.376154 4.603206 7.829729
2025-11-23 1.680325 1.912986 2.215270 2.663652 3.377083 4.658924 8.204913
2025-11-30 1.670182 1.906792 2.216443 2.680629 3.431980 4.825153 9.026789
2025-12-07 1.625086 1.853126 2.150657 2.594698 3.308258 4.613728 8.405348
2025-12-14 1.606908 1.834809 2.133172 2.580671 3.305636 4.652054 8.731473
2025-12-21 1.578874 1.802750 2.095822 2.535342 3.247260 4.569029 8.570149
2025-12-28 1.584159 1.815002 2.119895 2.583178 3.350051 4.833890 9.928159
2026-01-04 1.596717 1.837020 2.157873 2.653388 3.496482 5.219603 12.408747
2026-01-11 1.582595 1.822536 2.143719 2.641646 3.494445 5.261172 13.046157
2026-01-18 1.573905 1.815151 2.139310 2.644752 3.519115 5.368719 14.290567
2026-01-25 1.548027 1.783945 2.100309 2.592099 3.438354 5.208722 13.338676